The best books I read this year, in no particular order:
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction -- Phil Tetlock's book, co-written with Dan Gardner, is excellent. I think this is the best book I've read this year. It is thought-provoking and relevant in a very important area, and it's also very readable. If it's not quite as good as "Thinking, Fast and Slow" it is very close. Highly recommended.
Red Notice-- Bill Browder's book is his autobiographical tale of "high finance, murder, and one man's quest for justice." A real-life Tom Clancy novel set in the business world.
Shaky Ground: The Strange Saga of the U.S. Mortgage Giants -- The combination of a fascinating subject and great writing makes for a fantastic book. It's very compact -- only 150 pages in a small format -- but it covers a lot of ground. And it is a topic with equal parts business, government, and human folly -- "a cross between Monty Python and Shakespeare" that has massive ramifications for every American.
Lowenstein's take on the Woodrow Wilson issue at Princeton is here.
America's Secret Arsenal -- A look at America's cyberwarfare capabilities, with experts comparing it the nuclear arsenal in terms of importance and, decades ago, the level of secrecy surrounding it and the lack of precedent or rules for implementation. All of the subjects interviewed agreed that America has the most potent arsenal in the world, but beyond that there was little consensus.
The Man Who Tried to Redeem the World with Logic -- This article is an amazing look at Walter Pitts and his rise (and fall) amidst the giants of science of the 20th century, laying the foundation of computer science and artificial intelligence (among other fields) along the way.
A holiday gift of the highest order from Michael Mauboussin:
"The investment industry is filled with intelligent and hard-working professionals, but even the smartest succumb to mistakes in decision making. We have published a number of reports that describe the common mistakes investors make, as well as practical tools and techniques to manage or mitigate those mistakes. The reports seek to improve the overall quality of your decisions. Please find a list below, along with brief summaries and links. Tools for Decision Making:
Animating Mr. Market: Adopting a Proper Psychological Attitude: We capture the Mr. Market metaphor, which is a powerful way to think about markets. To be an active investor, you must believe in market inefficiency to get opportunities and in market efficiency for those opportunities to turn into profits. (02/10/15)
IQ versus RQ: Differentiating Smarts from Decision-Making Skills: Intelligence quotient (IQ) is like the horsepower of an engine and rationality quotient (RQ) is like the output. We offer tips for improving rationality and we profile top forecasters. We also describe a calibration test that shows overconfidence. (5/12/15)